[Mojtaba Targeted for Decapitation: The Hunt Alone Exerts Immense Pressure on Iran]

Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has disappeared without a trace for 150 days. There are no phone calls, no laptops, no public videos, and no voice messages. It is reported that the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Israel’s Mossad are penetrating deep into Iran’s internal, clandestine courier networks to verify his survival and locate his hideout. This is not a simple location check. Tracking the location and movement routes of an adversary’s supreme leader means completing the "targeting conditions" so that he can be eliminated at any time if necessary. In particular, the very intelligence agencies that previously located Mojtaba’s father, Ali Khamenei, and led to a decapitation airstrike are now pursuing the son. For the Iranian leadership, the tracking itself is already an attack and an immense psychological pressure.

The British daily The Times reported on the 27th that "the CIA and Mossad are tracking Mojtaba's survival status and hideout," adding, "Mojtaba has not appeared in public for about 150 days since his father, Ali Khamenei, was eliminated on February 28."

The Times noted, "There is no trace of Mojtaba using a phone or laptop, nor have any public videos or official voice messages been released under the Supreme Leader's name." It added, "Although he suffered severe facial injuries during the February airstrike and may currently be hiding deep underground in facilities designed to evade U.S. reconnaissance satellites, his exact medical condition and hideout remain unconfirmed."

Iranian authorities claim that Mojtaba is alive and governing normally. President Masoud Pezeshkian also recently stated that he held an extended meeting with the newly elevated Supreme Leader. However, no photographs, video footage, or voice messages have been released to support this. While assertions that the Supreme Leader is alive and well are repeated, a bizarre situation continues in which the regime cannot directly prove to its people that he is actually alive.

Mojtaba erased himself from the world to survive. However, as his absence lengthens, the question "Is he alive?" is turning into a far more dangerous question: "Who is actually running Iran right now?"

[When Electronic Tracking Stalled, They Started Hunting 'People']

The Times stated, "Mojtaba appears to have thoroughly cut off electronic devices that could expose his location," and "It is presumed that whenever directives are needed, written notes or verbal messages are passed through multi-tiered couriers instead of phones or the internet."

The Times continued, "Each courier can pass the content to the next person without knowing whose message they are carrying," and explained, "Observations suggest that only a tiny fraction of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officials are directly connected to Mojtaba. Under such a structure, it is difficult to locate him using signal interception or satellite surveillance alone."

Consequently, the CIA and Mossad are reported to have shifted their operational focus from electronic intelligence to human intelligence, so-called 'HUMINT' operations. The goal is to turn Mojtaba's closest confidants or reverse-engineer the intricate courier network to find the final link.

Anyone—from those delivering food, medication, and daily necessities to security personnel, medical staff, and IRGC liaisons—can become the starting point of the hunt. If even a single point in the courier network is breached, Mojtaba's hideout could be exposed. Even if he is hidden deep underground, he cannot completely sever the human and material supply lines required to sustain himself.

The biggest reason this hunt strikes fear into the Iranian leadership is that the CIA and Mossad have already set a precedent by finding Ali Khamenei.

During the joint U.S.-Israeli Operation 'Epic Fury' last February, the intelligence agencies of both nations reportedly tracked Tehran's communications network, traffic cameras, and the movement routes of security escort vehicles. Cyber capabilities from the U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) and the Israeli military's Unit 8200 were also deployed, and the intelligence gathered was translated into airstrikes targeting Ali Khamenei and the core command structure.

Therefore, the forces pursuing Mojtaba are not intelligence agencies merely curious about his well-being. They are organizations that have already located his father and top Iranian leadership to turn them into real attack targets. This is precisely why Mojtaba cannot afford to make a single phone call, a single movement, or release even a single voice message.

A small mistake could lead to death. A background sound, the technical characteristics of a recording device, the movement of a confidant's vehicle, or even food supply routes could all serve as clues to narrow down his hideout. For Mojtaba, public activity is no longer a political act; it has become a life-threatening gamble.

[The Ultimate Destination of Tracking Is the 'Elimination Option']

It is difficult to interpret the objective of the CIA and Mossad operations as merely verifying survival. Tenaciously tracking the hideout, movement routes, and inner communications network of an adversary's supreme leader is a process designed to establish the conditions required to execute an elimination operation if necessary.

Of course, there is no evidence that an decision to assassinate Mojtaba has already been made. Locating a target by intelligence agencies and the actual approval of an attack by political leadership are separate stages. However, from the perspective of the Iranian leadership, these two stages are practically hard to separate. The moment his location is verified, the possibility of an actual airstrike opens up beyond surveillance and pressure.

Moreover, his father was eliminated after the exact same type of tracking. The fact that the very agencies that found the father are now hunting the son leaves not only Mojtaba, but the IRGC and the entire religious elite, in a state of extreme crisis.

Even without launching missiles immediately, the U.S. and Israel can tie down Iran's supreme executive authority underground simply with the message, "We are continuously looking for you." The hunt itself is an attack, and even the uncertainty of his location brings Iran not relief, but a warning that time is running out.

[Target If He Surfaces, Collapse of Power If He Hides: Iran Trapped in a Dilemma]

The situation Mojtaba faces is close to a trap with no visible exit. If he reveals himself, the risk of exposing his location to the CIA and Mossad increases. Conversely, if he remains hidden, his authority and governing capacity as the Supreme Leader will collapse.

As the war drags on, this dilemma becomes even more severe. If the Supreme Leader's existence cannot be verified at moments requiring critical national decisions, power vacuums and ideological clashes among the IRGC, the government, and religious elites could grow. It cannot be ruled out that different factions might issue conflicting commands while claiming to represent Mojtaba's will.

Time is not on Mojtaba's side either. As the period of hiding extends, fatigue accumulates among his confidants and couriers, increasing the likelihood that guards loosen their vigilance or someone gets turned. Every time he moves hideouts, new transit routes and resupply networks are created, which in turn leave new clues for intelligence agencies to track.

['Decapitation Dread' Could Push Iran to the Negotiating Table]

More importantly, this hunt does not end with Mojtaba's personal survival. It is a powerful form of psychological warfare sending a warning to the entire Iranian leadership: "If you continue the war, the apex of the regime could be eliminated once again."

As the war continues, the need for Mojtaba to demonstrate official leadership grows. However, the moment he surfaces, it becomes dangerous. On the other hand, staying hidden erodes his authority and increases internal instability within the regime. Ultimately, a structure has been created where continuing the war and protecting the Supreme Leader directly conflict with each other.

This sense of crisis could bolster the arguments of those favoring negotiations within Iran. If military conflict is not halted or a certain compromise is not reached with the United States, not only Mojtaba's safety but the survival of the regime itself could be endangered. This might be the exact outcome the U.S. and Israel are aiming for: altering Iran's calculus and pushing it to the negotiating table by keeping the possibility of elimination open, even without carrying out an actual assassination.

[Why Times Insight]

The fact that the CIA and Mossad are tracking Mojtaba does not mean they are merely checking whether he is alive. Finding his location, mapping his movement routes, and penetrating his inner network of confidants are ultimately processes to complete the conditions required to eliminate him if necessary.

If Mojtaba surfaces, he becomes a target; if he stays hidden, his power trembles. As the war drags on, the likelihood increases that intelligence agencies will break through his circle of confidants and courier networks. The Supreme Leader of Iran is now trapped in a dilemma where he must choose between governance and survival.

The reality that the agencies that eliminated the father are now pursuing the son sends a clear warning to the Iranian leadership. The longer the war continues, the next target may not be a military facility, but once again the apex of the regime. It is precisely this 'fear of decapitation' that could push Iran not toward the continuation of war, but to the starting point of negotiations.

Amidst these developments, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will visit Washington on the 28th (U.S. time) to meet President Donald Trump. As the timing of the visit is strikingly coincidental, the eyes and ears of the world are focusing on the White House.