[Lukashenko’s Humiliation: "Everything is Completely Exposed"]

In 2026, as the war in Ukraine enters its fifth year, the anti-Western alliance system that Vladimir Putin has painstakingly built is showing deep fractures across the board. In an unprecedented move, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko—Putin's closest ally—extended an apology to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and publicly declared his refusal to intervene in the war. Meanwhile, Armenia has openly declared, "We are not Russia’s ally," and Central Asian nations are quietly distancing themselves from Moscow. Analysts suggest that the Russia-led security framework, which once symbolized the post-Soviet order, is now displaying much stronger signs of fragmentation than cohesion.

On June 16, Meduza, a prominent Russian independent media outlet, caught widespread attention by reporting: "In an interview with the Arab satellite broadcaster Al Arabiya, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated that Belarus being dragged into the Russia-Ukraine war is absolutely unacceptable, while extending an apology to President Zelenskyy." The outlet added, "The sight of Putin's closest ally—who has even hosted Russian nuclear weapons—publicly apologizing to an enemy head of state highlights an unprecedented rupture in Russian diplomacy."

Lukashenko admitted that his past rhetoric "might have been excessive in certain parts," but defended it as "a response to [Zelenskyy's] unfounded statements." He emphasized that when Zelenskyy threatened by saying, "I know of 500 targets, and I will strike them with missiles and drones tomorrow," he had chosen to remain silent.

Meduza further noted, "Behind the apology lies Belarus’s harsh, strategic self-assessment." The outlet reported that Lukashenko directly conceded, "Belarus is militarily highly vulnerable," quoting him as saying, "Everything in Belarus is laid bare like the palm of a hand before the Ukrainian military, and we are acutely aware that our key critical infrastructure—production facilities and logistics hubs—could be struck."

Lukashenko reiterated, "No military action should be expected from Belarus, especially from me," and emphasized that "it is absolutely unacceptable for the war between Russia and Ukraine to spill over into Belarusian territory." While framed on the surface as a declaration of neutrality, it functions in reality as a de facto defection refusing any involvement in the war.

What drew even greater attention amidst this development was his candid assessment of Belarus's security reality. According to Meduza, Lukashenko acknowledged that Belarus's core infrastructure falls entirely within Ukraine's surveillance range, and that its primary production facilities and logistics hubs would become targets in the event of a contingency.

Commenting on this, the Kyiv Independent noted, "These remarks came immediately after Robert 'Madyar' Brovdi, commander of a Ukrainian drone unit, warned that Ukraine has plans to strike approximately 500 targets within Belarus should it intervene in the war." The outlet analyzed that "Lukashenko’s apology is therefore read not as a voluntary gesture of reconciliation, but as an expression of reality-confronting submission to Ukraine’s military deterrence."

The Kyiv Independent also reported that according to Lukashenko, Putin himself was negative about Belarus's direct involvement in the war, noting that "the Kremlin’s stance is that Belarus joining the war would bring more harm than benefit." However, such a statement paradoxically proves how hollow the solidarity of the Russia-Belarus 'Union State' truly is in practice.

[Armenia’s Public Breakup: “We Are Not Russia’s Ally”]

If Belarus's distancing is a cautious signal, Armenia is delivering a far more direct message.

The Kyiv Independent reported, "On May 7, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan publicly declared, 'Armenia is not Russia’s ally on the Ukraine issue,' and officially confirmed his absence from the Victory Day parade in Moscow." The outlet added that the backdrop to Pashinyan’s remarks was Zelenskyy’s visit to Yerevan.

Euronews also reported, "Russia strongly reacted to Zelenskyy’s visit to Yerevan by summoning the Armenian ambassador." According to the report, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova demanded to know "which side of history" Armenia stands on, fiercely criticizing Yerevan for providing a platform to a "terrorist" (referring to Zelenskyy). Euronews pointed out that "Pashinyan remained undeterred, reaffirming that Armenia is not an ally of Russia in its war in Ukraine."

The Kyiv Post added, "Pashinyan stated that Armenia has been providing humanitarian aid to Ukraine and maintains this stance as part of its independent foreign policy track." The report noted that Armenia has been progressively widening its distance from Moscow ever since a widespread domestic perception took root that Russia had sided with Azerbaijan during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

The root of this shift lies in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Domestically, an awareness has spread within Armenia that Russia failed to sufficiently guarantee its ally's security. Since then, Armenia has scaled back its participation in the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and moved to expand cooperation with the United States and the West.

This defection by Armenia highlights the inherent vulnerability of the CSTO framework. Despite being a CSTO member, Armenia refused to send troops to Russia-led exercises and instead publicly announced joint military drills with the United States. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have also begun distancing themselves in their own ways, with Kyrgyzstan going so far as to unilaterally cancel a CSTO exercise just one day before it was scheduled to begin.

[An Empty Victory Day… Russia’s Altered Standing]

This isolation of Russia was vividly on display during the Victory Day parade in Red Square on May 9. The parade was scaled down to just 45 minutes, and for the first time since 2008, the armored vehicle procession was omitted. Security concerns stemming from the war in Ukraine were the direct cause, and North Korea was the only foreign military actually participating.

Euronews noted, "Attendance by foreign leaders was virtually non-existent, and as the parade went ahead without even a heavy armor procession, the Russian side minimized its public broadcast." The outlet pointed out that "this stood in stark contrast to the 2025 Victory Day, which was attended by leaders from 29 nations."

The U.S. public broadcaster NPR observed, "Security was tighter than any previous year," adding that "the parade was made possible only after a three-day truce mediated by the United States neutralized the possibility of Ukrainian strikes." Zelenskyy even signed a mocking decree stating that he "permitted" Russia to hold the parade.

Against the backdrop of the Iranian crisis, it has been demonstrated once again that Russia’s so-called anti-Western bloc is nothing more than a collection of temporary, transactional interests rather than a strategic alliance. Analysts also suggest that as the war in Ukraine drags into its fifth year, Russia’s capacity to provide sufficient political and military support to Iran has been completely depleted.

[North Korea as the Lone Loyal Ally… Deepening Dependence on China]

Russia's foreign policy in 2026 illustrates a shift from acting as a 'great power' to a 'pragmatic actor.' While Russia still holds cards such as diplomatic experience, military-technical cooperation, and energy resources, it no longer behaves from the status of a superpower, but rather moves in a direction that pursues pragmatic partnerships. Ironically, while a multipolar world is materializing, other major powers—not Russia—are playing the central roles, while Russia itself is deepening its dependence on China.

The Brookings Institution noted, "North Korea currently remains the only loyal ally that has signed a mutual defense treaty with Russia and practically dispatched troops." However, the think tank pointed out that "this relationship paradoxically proves Russia’s strategic isolation. Moscow, which once saw leaders from 29 countries attend its parade, has now degraded to a state where it can barely maintain its frontlines without Pyongyang’s support."

[Outlook and Commentary]

Lukashenko’s unprecedented apology, Armenia’s overt distancing, and the weakening cohesion of the CSTO may look like isolated incidents, but they point to a single, common trajectory: the network of influence Russia built over decades is gradually eroding under the weight of the prolonged war in Ukraine.

Alliances are not maintained by military might alone; they must be backed by shared interests, trust, and security guarantees during crises. However, the war in Ukraine is forcing Russia’s allies to confront a fundamental question: "Can Moscow truly protect us?"

While Belarus still maintains close military ties with Russia, Lukashenko’s remarks reveal that fear and pragmatic calculations lie beneath that solidarity. Armenia has already accelerated its independent track, and Central Asian nations are quietly expanding their options.

The greatest loss left behind by the war in Ukraine may not be territory or weaponry. A far more fatal loss is the trust of its allies. Putin may have gained territory, but he appears to be losing his alliance.